Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Wednesday 15 April 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 25975 (+2365) 611745 (+25368) 38675 (+2457) 547095 (+20546)
Italy 21067 (+602) 162488 (+2972) 37130 (+1695) 104291 (+675)
Spain 18255 (+499) 174060 (+3961) 67504 (+2777) 88301 (+685)
France 15729 (+762) 143303 (+6524) 28805 (+1087) 98769 (+4675)
United Kingdom 12107 (+778) 93873 (+5252) 0 (+0) 81766 (+4474)
Iran 4683 (+98) 74877 (+1574) 48129 (+2146) 22065 (-670)
Belgium 4157 (+254) 31119 (+530) 6868 (+161) 20094 (+115)
Germany 3495 (+301) 132210 (+2138) 68200 (+3900) 60515 (-2063)
China 3341 (+0) 82249 (+89) 77738 (+75) 1170 (+14)
Netherlands 2945 (+122) 27419 (+868) 250 (+0) 24224 (+746)
Brazil 1532 (+204) 25262 (+1832) 3046 (+2873) 20684 (-1245)
Turkey 1403 (+107) 65111 (+4062) 4799 (+842) 58909 (+3113)
Switzerland 1174 (+36) 25936 (+248) 13700 (+0) 11062 (+212)
Sweden 1033 (+114) 11445 (+497) 381 (+0) 10031 (+383)
Canada 898 (+118) 26897 (+1217) 8172 (+416) 17827 (+683)
Portugal 567 (+32) 17448 (+514) 347 (+70) 16534 (+412)
Indonesia 459 (+60) 4839 (+282) 426 (+46) 3954 (+176)
Ireland 406 (+41) 11479 (+832) 25 (+0) 11048 (+791)
India 393 (+35) 11487 (+1034) 1359 (+178) 9735 (+821)
Austria 384 (+16) 14226 (+185) 7633 (+290) 6209 (-121)
Ecuador 369 (+14) 7603 (+74) 696 (+99) 6538 (-39)
Romania 351 (+20) 6879 (+246) 1051 (+137) 5477 (+89)
Philippines 335 (+20) 5223 (+291) 295 (+53) 4593 (+218)
Mexico 332 (+36) 5014 (+353) 1964 (+121) 2718 (+196)
Algeria 326 (+13) 2070 (+87) 691 (+90) 1053 (-16)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 14 April 2020 123177 (+6932) 1912956 (+71906) 389144 (+23268)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 15 April 2020 126870 ( +4905) 1945955 ( +55520) 407724 ( +19724)
Thu 16 April 2020 131383 ( +4513) 1996428 ( +50473) 426106 ( +18382)
Fri 17 April 2020 135500 ( +4117) 2042021 ( +45594) 443058 ( +16951)
Sat 18 April 2020 139227 ( +3727) 2082972 ( +40950) 458538 ( +15480)
Sun 19 April 2020 142577 ( +3350) 2119561 ( +36590) 472549 ( +14011)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 14 April 2020 3341 (+0) 82249 (+89) 77738 (+75)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 15 April 2020 3281 ( +0) 81201 ( +0) 76599 ( +20)
Thu 16 April 2020 3281 ( +0) 81201 ( +0) 76616 ( +18)
Fri 17 April 2020 3281 ( +0) 81201 ( +0) 76632 ( +15)
Sat 18 April 2020 3281 ( +0) 81201 ( +0) 76645 ( +13)
Sun 19 April 2020 3281 ( +0) 81201 ( +0) 76657 ( +12)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 14 April 2020 18255 (+499) 174060 (+3961) 67504 (+2777)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 15 April 2020 17876 ( +227) 171309 ( +1746) 68182 ( +1777)
Thu 16 April 2020 18065 ( +190) 172782 ( +1473) 69691 ( +1510)
Fri 17 April 2020 18223 ( +158) 174020 ( +1238) 70963 ( +1272)
Sat 18 April 2020 18354 ( +131) 175058 ( +1038) 72028 ( +1064)
Sun 19 April 2020 18461 ( +108) 175926 ( +868) 72912 ( +885)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 14 April 2020 21067 (+602) 162488 (+2972) 37130 (+1695)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 15 April 2020 20526 ( +233) 157331 ( +1411) 37766 ( +1319)
Thu 16 April 2020 20729 ( +203) 158571 ( +1240) 39015 ( +1248)
Fri 17 April 2020 20905 ( +176) 159658 ( +1087) 40189 ( +1174)
Sat 18 April 2020 21057 ( +152) 160610 ( +951) 41287 ( +1098)
Sun 19 April 2020 21189 ( +132) 161441 ( +831) 42309 ( +1022)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 14 April 2020 12107 (+778) 93873 (+5252) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 15 April 2020 12625 ( +595) 97227 ( +4191) 221 ( +10)
Thu 16 April 2020 13144 ( +519) 101064 ( +3837) 231 ( +10)
Fri 17 April 2020 13590 ( +446) 104542 ( +3478) 241 ( +10)
Sat 18 April 2020 13968 ( +378) 107666 ( +3123) 252 ( +11)
Sun 19 April 2020 14286 ( +317) 110447 ( +2781) 263 ( +11)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 14 April 2020 25975 (+2365) 611745 (+25368) 38675 (+2457)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 15 April 2020 26969 ( +1417) 621503 ( +18552) 38483 ( +1517)
Thu 16 April 2020 28225 ( +1256) 637708 ( +16205) 39783 ( +1301)
Fri 17 April 2020 29321 ( +1096) 651743 ( +14034) 40884 ( +1100)
Sat 18 April 2020 30263 ( +943) 663808 ( +12065) 41805 ( +921)
Sun 19 April 2020 31065 ( +802) 674114 ( +10306) 42569 ( +764)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 14 April 2020 15729 (+762) 143303 (+6524) 28805 (+1087)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 15 April 2020 16132 ( +467) 147805 ( +3881) 36994 ( +3385)
Thu 16 April 2020 16527 ( +395) 151238 ( +3433) 40720 ( +3726)
Fri 17 April 2020 16857 ( +330) 154254 ( +3016) 44821 ( +4102)
Sat 18 April 2020 17132 ( +274) 156888 ( +2634) 49336 ( +4515)
Sun 19 April 2020 17358 ( +226) 159176 ( +2288) 54305 ( +4969)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 14 April 2020 3495 (+301) 132210 (+2138) 68200 (+3900)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 15 April 2020 3510 ( +120) 131892 ( +1507) 70953 ( +2896)
Thu 16 April 2020 3612 ( +102) 133178 ( +1286) 73485 ( +2533)
Fri 17 April 2020 3699 ( +87) 134271 ( +1093) 75673 ( +2188)
Sat 18 April 2020 3772 ( +73) 135198 ( +927) 77544 ( +1870)
Sun 19 April 2020 3833 ( +61) 135981 ( +784) 79128 ( +1584)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 14 April 2020 2945 (+122) 27419 (+868) 250 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 15 April 2020 2952 ( +61) 27151 ( +597) 250 ( +0)
Thu 16 April 2020 3004 ( +52) 27684 ( +533) 250 ( +0)
Fri 17 April 2020 3048 ( +43) 28158 ( +474) 250 ( +0)
Sat 18 April 2020 3084 ( +36) 28577 ( +419) 250 ( +0)
Sun 19 April 2020 3114 ( +30) 28946 ( +369) 250 ( +0)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 14 April 2020 4157 (+254) 31119 (+530) 6868 (+161)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 15 April 2020 4476 ( +280) 31554 ( +737) 7098 ( +225)
Thu 16 April 2020 4733 ( +257) 32201 ( +647) 7292 ( +194)
Fri 17 April 2020 4965 ( +232) 32766 ( +565) 7458 ( +166)
Sat 18 April 2020 5171 ( +206) 33256 ( +491) 7598 ( +140)
Sun 19 April 2020 5352 ( +181) 33680 ( +424) 7717 ( +118)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 14 April 2020 1033 (+114) 11445 (+497) 381 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 15 April 2020 1049 ( +35) 11958 ( +460) 409 ( +12)
Thu 16 April 2020 1078 ( +29) 12397 ( +439) 419 ( +10)
Fri 17 April 2020 1102 ( +24) 12813 ( +416) 427 ( +8)
Sat 18 April 2020 1122 ( +19) 13205 ( +392) 434 ( +7)
Sun 19 April 2020 1137 ( +16) 13573 ( +368) 439 ( +5)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 14 April 2020 263 (+18) 7202 (+268) 618 (+131)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 15 April 2020 278 ( +15) 7451 ( +246) 659 ( +71)
Thu 16 April 2020 291 ( +13) 7672 ( +221) 727 ( +68)
Fri 17 April 2020 302 ( +11) 7869 ( +197) 791 ( +64)
Sat 18 April 2020 312 ( +10) 8043 ( +174) 850 ( +58)
Sun 19 April 2020 320 ( +8) 8195 ( +153) 902 ( +52)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 14 April 2020 1174 (+36) 25936 (+248) 13700 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 15 April 2020 1186 ( +27) 25531 ( +172) 13931 ( +297)
Thu 16 April 2020 1209 ( +23) 25676 ( +145) 14163 ( +232)
Fri 17 April 2020 1229 ( +20) 25798 ( +122) 14342 ( +179)
Sat 18 April 2020 1245 ( +17) 25901 ( +103) 14480 ( +138)
Sun 19 April 2020 1259 ( +14) 25987 ( +86) 14586 ( +106)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 14 April 2020 4683 (+98) 74877 (+1574) 48129 (+2146)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 15 April 2020 4568 ( +54) 76957 ( +1480) 54589 ( +4537)
Thu 16 April 2020 4616 ( +49) 78326 ( +1369) 59538 ( +4949)
Fri 17 April 2020 4660 ( +43) 79588 ( +1262) 64935 ( +5397)
Sat 18 April 2020 4698 ( +39) 80749 ( +1160) 70821 ( +5886)
Sun 19 April 2020 4733 ( +34) 81812 ( +1064) 77241 ( +6420)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.